Will the households arrive before the school opens?

This page joins one observed leading indicator, the dwellings a council is completing, to one slow system, primary school provision, through assumptions you can see and move. It ends in a statement about timing, which public data can support, and never in a statement about need, which it cannot.

The chain

Assumptions you can move

Scenario

Timing

Which assumption the answer rests on

Each assumption moved on its own to the low and high end of a stated band, the others held. The largest swing is the number most worth checking before quoting anything.

Completions, observed and projected

Sources

Measure and dataset names, and the registry detail describing them, are shown as their publisher issued them, not translated for this prototype.

What this does not show

• It does not say whether any school has places, how many it has, or whether any child will be able to attend one. School capacity is not published in an open, licensed form, and this page does not guess it.
• It does not say that anyone needs anything. Households arriving is a timing fact; what should be built for them is a judgement for the Department of Education, the patron bodies and the council, made with data this page does not hold.
• The transmission steps — occupancy, household size, the share who are children — are assumptions. They are defensible starting points, shown with their sources, and they are wrong in detail for every council.
• A completion is a dwelling, not a household. Where the completed homes are inside the council, who moves in, and whether they moved from inside the same catchment, is not in this data.
• The projection is of a published count of completions. Where the Forecast Gate refused it, only the observed rate is used and the page says so.